Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 23,668
2 Arizona 22,520
3 New York 21,438
4 New Jersey 20,460
5 Florida 20,148
6 Mississippi 17,793
7 Rhode Island 17,477
8 Massachusetts 16,819
9 District of Columbia 16,802
10 Alabama 16,543
11 South Carolina 16,007
12 Delaware 14,794
13 Georgia 14,684
14 Nevada 14,246
15 Maryland 14,131
16 Texas 13,874
17 Illinois 13,766
18 Tennessee 13,745
19 Connecticut 13,738
20 Iowa 13,532
21 Arkansas 13,071
22 Nebraska 12,871
23 Utah 11,989
24 California 11,821
25 North Carolina 10,935
26 Idaho 10,540
27 Virginia 10,083
28 Indiana 9,568
29 South Dakota 9,544
30 New Mexico 9,300
31 Minnesota 9,192
32 Wisconsin 9,158
33 Kansas 9,075
34 Pennsylvania 8,826
35 Michigan 8,744
36 Oklahoma 8,220
37 North Dakota 7,860
38 Colorado 7,766
39 Missouri 7,301
40 Washington 7,294
41 Ohio 7,286
42 Kentucky 6,323
43 Puerto Rico 4,831
44 New Hampshire 4,737
45 Alaska 4,379
46 Wyoming 4,354
47 Oregon 4,059
48 West Virginia 3,378
49 Montana 3,186
50 Maine 2,850
51 Vermont 2,246
52 Hawaii 1,192

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 472
2 Louisiana 443
3 Mississippi 368
4 Tennessee 351
5 Alabama 347
6 Arizona 344
7 Nevada 310
8 Oklahoma 287
9 Idaho 265
10 Georgia 256
11 South Carolina 246
12 Arkansas 242
13 Texas 214
14 Alaska 208
15 California 202
16 Missouri 194
17 Maryland 171
18 North Carolina 171
19 New Mexico 163
20 North Dakota 162
21 Puerto Rico 152
22 Virginia 144
23 Utah 143
24 Wisconsin 139
25 Minnesota 136
26 Iowa 133
27 Nebraska 124
28 Kentucky 121
29 Kansas 118
30 Indiana 115
31 Illinois 106
32 Washington 99
33 District of Columbia 98
34 Ohio 97
35 Colorado 94
36 Montana 91
37 Rhode Island 91
38 South Dakota 91
39 Oregon 75
40 Delaware 69
41 Michigan 69
42 Pennsylvania 69
43 West Virginia 66
44 Wyoming 66
45 New Jersey 55
46 Massachusetts 45
47 Hawaii 38
48 New York 32
49 Connecticut 19
50 Maine 18
51 New Hampshire 16
52 Vermont 9

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,779
2 New York 1,661
3 Connecticut 1,239
4 Massachusetts 1,238
5 Rhode Island 947
6 District of Columbia 824
7 Louisiana 814
8 Michigan 641
9 Illinois 601
10 Delaware 594
11 Maryland 570
12 Pennsylvania 560
13 Mississippi 504
14 Arizona 456
15 Indiana 431
16 Georgia 323
17 Colorado 312
18 Alabama 304
19 New Hampshire 300
20 New Mexico 295
21 South Carolina 292
22 Minnesota 286
23 Ohio 286
24 Florida 276
25 Iowa 264
26 Virginia 243
27 Nevada 239
28 California 216
29 Texas 216
30 Washington 211
31 Missouri 202
32 North Carolina 173
33 Nebraska 166
34 Kentucky 162
35 Wisconsin 155
36 Tennessee 141
37 South Dakota 139
38 Arkansas 135
39 North Dakota 135
40 Oklahoma 125
41 Kansas 116
42 Vermont 89
43 Idaho 88
44 Maine 88
45 Utah 88
46 Oregon 68
47 Puerto Rico 62
48 West Virginia 59
49 Montana 43
50 Wyoming 43
51 Alaska 25
52 Hawaii 17

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Texas 16
2 Arizona 7
3 South Carolina 7
4 Louisiana 5
5 Florida 4
6 Mississippi 4
7 Alabama 3
8 Georgia 2
9 Idaho 2
10 New Mexico 2
11 Arkansas 1
12 California 1
13 Illinois 1
14 Indiana 1
15 Iowa 1
16 Maryland 1
17 Massachusetts 1
18 Missouri 1
19 Nevada 1
20 New Jersey 1
21 North Carolina 1
22 Ohio 1
23 Puerto Rico 1
24 Tennessee 1
25 Wisconsin 1
26 Alaska 0
27 Colorado 0
28 Connecticut 0
29 Delaware 0
30 District of Columbia 0
31 Hawaii 0
32 Kansas 0
33 Kentucky 0
34 Maine 0
35 Michigan 0
36 Minnesota 0
37 Montana 0
38 Nebraska 0
39 New Hampshire 0
40 New York 0
41 North Dakota 0
42 Oklahoma 0
43 Oregon 0
44 Pennsylvania 0
45 Rhode Island 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Virginia 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 138,337 1 99
Lake Tennessee 102,052 2 99
Lee Arkansas 98,905 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 94,377 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 90,520 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 29,034 112 96
Richland South Carolina 17,058 386 87
Orange California 10,910 816 74
York South Carolina 10,172 890 71
Pierce Washington 5,293 1634 47

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,020 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 3,013 5 99
Richland South Carolina 305 650 79
Davidson Tennessee 271 723 76
Orange California 178 1001 68
Pierce Washington 146 1136 63
York South Carolina 85 1490 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons